Molecular age prediction using skull bone samples from individuals with and without signs of decomposition: a...

The prediction of the chronological age of a deceased individual at time of death can provide important information in case of unidentified bodies. The methodological possibilities in these cases depend on the availability of tissues, whereby bones are preserved for a long time due to their mineralization under normal environmental conditions. Age-dependent changes in DNA methylation (DNAm) as well as the accumulation of pentosidine (Pen) and D-aspartic acid (D-Asp) could be useful molecular markers for age prediction. A combination of such molecular clocks into one age prediction model seems favorable to minimize inter- and intra-individual variation. We therefore developed (I) age prediction models based on the three molecular clocks, (II) examined the improvement of age prediction by combination, and (III) investigated if samples with signs of decomposition can also be examined using these three molecular clocks. Skull bone from deceased individuals was collected to obtain a training dataset (n = 86), and two independent test sets (without signs of decomposition: n = 44, with signs of decomposition: n = 48). DNAm of 6 CpG sites in ELOVL2, KLF14, PDE4C, RPA2, TRIM59 and ZYG11A was analyzed using massive parallel sequencing (MPS). The D-Asp and Pen contents were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Age prediction models based on ridge regression were developed resulting in mean absolute errors (MAEs)/root mean square errors (RMSE) of 5.5years /6.6 years (DNAm), 7.7 years /9.3 years (Pen) and 11.7 years /14.6 years (D-Asp) in the test set. Unsurprisingly, a general lower accuracy for the DNAm, D-Asp, and Pen models was observed in samples from decomposed bodies (MAE: 7.4-11.8 years, RMSE: 10.4-15.4 years). This reduced accuracy could be caused by multiple factors with different impact on each molecular clock. To acknowledge general changes due to decomposition, a pilot model for a possible age prediction based on the decomposed samples as training set improved the accuracy evaluated by leave-one-out-cross validation (MAE: 6.6-12 years, RMSE: 8.1-15.9 years). The combination of all three molecular age clocks did reveal comparable MAE and RMSE results to the pure analysis of the DNA methylation for the test set without signs of decomposition. However, an improvement by the combination of all three clocks was possible for the decomposed samples, reducing especially the deviation in case of outliers in samples with very high decomposition and low DNA content. The results demonstrate the general potential in a combined analysis of different molecular clocks in specific cases.