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Modeling interdependence between climatic factors, commodities, and financial markets.

Fatemeh Mojtahedi1, Daniel Felix Ahelegbey2,3, Mario Martina1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate risk significantly impacts commodity prices and financial markets. Crude oil, cotton, and sugar are most affected, while gold is least, with climate effects propagating through specific atmospheric patterns.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Economics
  • Financial Markets Analysis
  • Network Analysis

Background:

  • Climate change introduces significant risks to global economic systems.
  • Understanding the transmission channels of climate risk to financial and commodity markets is crucial for risk management.
  • Previous studies have explored climate impacts, but a network-based approach offers deeper insights into interconnected market dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of climate-related factors on commodity prices and financial market returns.
  • To identify specific commodities and financial markets most vulnerable to climate risk.
  • To determine the propagation patterns of climate risk within these markets.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a Bayesian network Vector Autoregressive (BN-VAR) model.
  • Employed network analysis to map the relationships between climate factors and market variables.
  • Analyzed data on major commodities (Crude oil, Cotton, Sugar, Gold) and global stock markets (Hong Kong, India, Spain, Switzerland).

Main Results:

  • Crude oil, cotton, and sugar prices are significantly influenced by climate risk; gold is least affected.
  • Climate risk impacts on commodities are propagated through patterns like the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NN1), and Arctic Oscillation (AO).
  • Stock markets in Hong Kong, India, and Spain show high susceptibility to climate risk, while Switzerland's market is least affected, with propagation via factors like the East North Pacific pattern (ENP), NN1, and the West-Pacific pattern (WH).

Conclusions:

  • Climate factors exert a demonstrable influence on both commodity and financial markets.
  • Specific commodities and geographic stock markets exhibit varying degrees of vulnerability to climate-related risks.
  • The study highlights the necessity of integrating climate risk assessment into financial and commodity market analysis for improved performance evaluation and strategic planning.