Mortality attributable to diabetes in Cuba: Estimates for 2019

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Diabetes mellitus is a significant global health concern.
• Accurate mortality data is crucial for understanding disease burden and guiding public health interventions.
• Cuba's National Death Registry may underestimate diabetes-related mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the excess mortality attributable to diabetes in Cuba in 2019.
• To provide national and provincial estimates of diabetes-related deaths.
• To compare these estimates with official mortality data.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a cross-sectional design with secondary data analysis.
• Employed the DISMODII (Disease Modeling and Estimation) software, a generic disease model.
• Integrated data on population, total mortality, diabetes prevalence (Cuban National Health Survey 2019), and relative risk of death.

Main Results:

• Estimated excess mortality from diabetes was 7.5 times higher than reported by the National Death Registry.
• Diabetes accounted for an estimated 16.4% of all deaths in Cuba in 2019.
• Provincial all-cause mortality percentages attributed to diabetes ranged from 10.7% (Villa Clara) to 24.5% (Ciego de Avila).

Conclusions:

• Diabetes is a substantially underestimated leading cause of death in Cuba.
• Official mortality statistics likely do not fully capture the impact of diabetes.
• Disease modeling tools like DISMODII are vital for validating epidemiological indicators and disease burden calculations.