Predicting Prayagraj's Urbanization Trajectory using CA-ANN Modelling: Population Pressures and Land Use Dynamics

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) dynamics provide a crucial role in the monitoring, planning, and management of resources. They also offer valuable information for developing strategies to balance conservation efforts, resolve conflicts between different land uses, and address pressures from growth. The present study focuses on the assessment of LULC dynamics, their forecasting, and their changes for Prayagraj city (including its surroundings) of India. Using long-term spatiotemporal Landsat datasets (1988-2018), we have explored the interlinkages between the change dynamics and human population pressure to explore the impact of agriculture and urbanization on the city landscape. Future growth prediction is carried out by incorporating Cellular Automaton (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Six exploratory layers (viz., roads, educational institutes, railway transition, slope, river, and restricted area) are used in the learning process to determine LULC change (1997-2008) simulation. The validation of real and predicted LULC is carried out for 2018, where the correctness percentage and kappa value are found to be 90.29% and 0.87, respectively. Then, the ANN- Multilayer perceptron (MLP) and CA model are applied to predict LULC-2028 using the same trained transition probabilities. Results show that Built-land has grown highly by 10.03%, whereas Agriculture land and Forest land have significantly decreased by 13.43% and 3.03%, respectively, from 1988 to 2018. The predicted LULC of 2028 reveals that Built-land will keep growing by 2.83% during 2018-2028 at the cost of Agriculture land and Forest land, especially in northern, south-western and southern region, including city's inner sphere. United Nations' human population projection reveals that the city is expected to reach a population of 1.625 million by 2028. This indicates that tremendous pressure will be placed on land resources, particularly on agricultural, barren, and forested areas. To address this alarming scenario, it is imperative to delineate future development areas, ensuring better urban planning for the environmental sustainability and economic prosperity of Prayagraj city.