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Development of Prediction Model for Hirschsprung-Associated Enterocolitis (HAEC) in Postoperative Hirschsprung
Sireekarn Chantakhow1, Kanokkan Tepmalai1, Apichat Tantraworasin2
1Division of Pediatric Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; Clinical Surgical Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand.
Background:
Despite identifying numerous risk factors for postoperative Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC), predicting individual risk remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a clinical prediction model for predicting the probability of postoperative HAEC within 5 years after surgery in Hirschsprung individuals.
Methods:
The study included all children with Hirschsprung disease who underwent definitive surgery at Chiang Mai University Hospital from 2006 to 2021. Concomitant anorectal abnormalities and incomplete data were excluded. A multivariable logistic regression analysis, adjusted for correlated data, was utilized to develop the prediction model.
Results:
Of the included 274 patients, 75 patients (27.4%) experienced postoperative HAEC within 5 years, totaling 121 episodes. Based on statistical and theoretical significance, eight parameters were utilized as predictors, which included male (OR1.23,95%CI:0.53-2.86), trisomy21(OR1.34,95%CI:0.21-8.45), weight at the time of surgery (OR0.86,95%CI:0.73-1.02), absence of exclusive breastfeeding (OR1.51,95%CI:0.65-3.51), length of the aganglionic segment (rectosigmoid (OR1.32,95%CI:0.48-3.62), long segment (OR41.39,95%CI:3.00-570.37), and total colonic aganglionosis (OR710.20,95%CI:23.55-21420.72)), preoperative stoma (OR1.72,95%CI:0.34-8.58), surgical approach (Duhamel (OR0.06,95%CI:0.01-0.81) and abdominal assisted trans anal endorectal pull-through (OR0.04,95%CI:0.002-0.65)), and early HAEC before two weeks following surgery (OR1.98,95%CI:0.67-5.82). The derived predictive model exhibited acceptable discriminative performance (AuROC:0.749,95%CI:0.679-0.816). Risk groups were categorized into low and high-risk, with positive likelihood ratios of 0.65 and 10.70, respectively. Recommendations for management and follow-up were generated based on these risk groups. An online application has been developed for calculating individual risk of postoperative HAEC and offering management suggestions with follow-up schedule: [https://w1.med.cmu.ac.th/surgery/personnel/pedsurgerycmu/#HAEC-Calculator].
Conclusions:
This risk predictive model accurately estimates the probability of postoperative HAEC within 5 years after surgery in Hirschsprung patients. It facilitates risk stratification and provides personalized recommendations to parents for the prevention and early detection of postoperative HAEC.
Levels Of Evidence:
Level II Retrospective cohort study (Prognosis study).
