Tipping-point transition from transient to persistent inflammation in pancreatic islets

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with a systemic increase in the pro-inflammatory cytokine IL-1β. While transient exposure to low IL-1β concentrations improves insulin secretion and β-cell proliferation in pancreatic islets, prolonged exposure leads to impaired insulin secretion and collective β-cell death. IL-1 is secreted locally by islet-resident macrophages and β-cells; however, it is unknown if and how the two opposing modes may emerge at single islet level. We investigated the duality of IL-1β with a quantitative in silico model of the IL-1 regulatory network in pancreatic islets. We find that the network can produce either transient or persistent IL-1 responses when induced by pro-inflammatory and metabolic cues. This suggests that the duality of IL-1 may be regulated at the single islet level. We use two core feedbacks in the IL-1 regulation to explain both modes: First, a fast positive feedback in which IL-1 induces its own production through the IL-1R/IKK/NF-κB pathway. Second, a slow negative feedback where NF-κB upregulates inhibitors acting at different levels along the IL-1R/IKK/NF-κB pathway-IL-1 receptor antagonist and A20, among others. A transient response ensues when the two feedbacks are balanced. When the positive feedback dominates over the negative, islets transit into the persistent inflammation mode. Consistent with several observations, where the size of islets was implicated in its inflammatory state, we find that large islets and islets with high density of IL-1β amplifying cells are more prone to transit into persistent IL-1β mode. Our results are likely not limited to IL-1β but are general for the combined effect of multiple pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. Generalizing complex regulations in terms of two feedback mechanisms of opposing nature and acting on different time scales provides a number of testable predictions. Taking islet architecture and cellular heterogeneity into consideration, further dynamic monitoring and experimental validation in actual islet samples will be crucial to verify the model predictions and enhance its utility in clinical applications.