Prediction of individual weight loss using supervised learning: findings from the CALERIE^TM 2 study

Predicting individual weight loss (WL) responses to lifestyle interventions is challenging but might help practitioners and clinicians select the most promising approach for each individual.

The primary aim of this study was to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict individual WL responses using only variables known before starting the intervention. In addition, we used ML to identify pre-intervention variables influencing the individual WL response.

We used 12-mo data from the comprehensive assessment of long-term effects of reducing intake of energy (CALERIE^TM) phase 2 study, which aimed to analyze the long-term effects of caloric restriction on human longevity. On the basis of the data from 130 subjects in the intervention group, we developed classification models to predict binary ("Success" and "No/low success") or multiclass ("High success," "Medium success," and "Low/no success") WL outcomes. Additionally, regression models were developed to predict individual weight change (percent). Models were evaluated on the basis of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity (classification models), and root mean squared error (RMSE; regression models).

Best classification models used 20-40 predictors and achieved 89%-97% accuracy, 91%-100% sensitivity, and 56%-86% specificity for binary classification. For multiclass classification, accuracy (69%) and sensitivity (50%) tended to be lower. The best regression performance was obtained with 36 variables with an RMSE of 2.84%. Among the 21 variables predicting individual weight change most consistently, we identified 2 novel predictors, namely orgasm satisfaction and sexual behavior/experience. Other common predictors have previously been associated with WL (16) or are already used in traditional prediction models (3).

The prediction models could be implemented by practitioners and clinicians to support the decision of whether lifestyle interventions are sufficient or more aggressive interventions are needed for a given individual, thereby supporting better, faster, data-driven, and unbiased decisions. The CALERIE^TM phase 2 study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00427193.