Outcome-Orientated Organ Allocation-A Composite Risk Model for Pancreas Graft Evaluation and Acceptance

Background: Pancreas transplantation (PTX) remains the most effective treatment to prevent long-term complications and provide consistent euglycemia in patients with endocrine pancreatic insufficiency, mainly in type I diabetic patients. Considering early graft loss (EGL) and the perioperative complication rate, an optimal risk stratification based on donor risk factors is paramount. Methods: In our single-center study, we retrospectively assessed the risk factors for EGL and reduced graft survival in 97 PTXs (82 simultaneous pancreas and kidney [SPK], 11 pancreases transplanted after kidney [PAK] and 4 pancreases transplanted alone [PTA]) between 2010 and 2021. By statistically analyzing the incorporation of different donor risk factors using the Kaplan-Meier method and a log-rank test, we introduced a composite risk model for the evaluation of offered pancreas grafts. Results: The overall EGL rate was 6.5%. In the univariate analysis of donor characteristics, age > 45 years, BMI > 25 kg/m², lipase > 60 U/L, cerebrovascular accident (CVA) as the cause of death, mechanical cardiopulmonary resuscitation (mCPR), cold ischemia time (CIT) > 600 min and retrieval by another center were identified as potential risk factors; however, they lacked statistical significance. In a multivariate model, age > 45 years (HR 2.05, p = 0.355), BMI > 25 kg/m² (HR 3.18, p = 0.051), lipase > 60 U/L (HR 2.32, p = 0.148), mCPR (HR 8.62, p < 0.0001) and CIT > 600 min (HR 1.89, p = 0.142) had the greatest impact on pancreas graft survival. We subsumed these factors in a composite risk model. The combination of three risk factors increased the rate of EGL significantly (p = 0.003). Comparing the pancreas graft survival curves for ≥3 risk factors to <3 risk factors in a Kaplan-Meier model revealed significant inferiority in the pancreas graft survival rate (p = 0.029). Conclusions: When evaluating a potential donor organ, grafts with a combination of three or more risk factors should only be accepted after careful consideration to reduce the risk of EGL and to significantly improve outcomes after PTX.