Comparing the Risk of Poor Outcomes Among Hepatitis C-Infected, Cured, and Never-Infected Controls

Studies show decreased rates of poor outcomes after hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure. However, there are no data comparing risk of poor outcomes to that of HCV never infected; results that could have implications for those who may not need ongoing specialty follow-up after cure.

Retrospective cohort study conducted among Kaiser Permanente Northern California adults ages 18 and up between 2002 and 2019. Three cohorts were identified: 1) chronic HCV, 2) HCV cured, and 3) every chronic HCV and HCV-cured individual was matched by age, sex and race-ethnicity to 3 HCV negative controls. Outcomes of interest were cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and all-cause mortality. A low-risk group of HCV cured individuals without significant liver disease and/or concomitant liver disease cofactor(s) were identified.

We identified 21,184 chronic HCV, 11,950 HCV cure, and 99,402 control individuals. Five-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality was 10% vs 3.6% vs 0.8%, 12% vs 2.6% vs 0.6%, 3.9% vs 1.6% vs 0.07%, and 14% vs 2.8% vs 2.2% for chronic HCV, HCV cure, and control individuals, respectively (log-rank P < .01 for all). Compared to controls, HCV cured low-risk individuals had numerically similar 5-year cumulative incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC and all-cause mortality (1.2% vs 0.8%, P < .01; 0.9% vs 0.6%, P < .01; 0.5% vs 0.1%, P < .01; 1.7% vs 2.2%, P < .01).

HCV cure provides significant health benefits but does not universally return risk of poor outcomes to that of the general population. A simple stratification at the time of HCV cure could identify low-risk individuals who can potentially be discharged from specialty clinics/HCC surveillance.