Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Ureteral Stricture after Ureteroscopic Holmium Laser Lithotripsy

Introduction: To analyze the influencing factors of ureteral stenosis after ureteroscopic holmium laser lithotripsy. Methods: The clinical data of 427 patients treated with ureteroscopic holmium laser lithotripsy were selected, and the patients were divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of ureteral stenosis after the operation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the independent risk factors for postoperative ureteral stenosis, and R software and regression coefficients were used to construct a predictive model. Results: After a 1-year follow-up of 427 patients, 28 patients (6.56%) developed ureteral stenosis; univariate analysis showed that the occurrence of ureteral stenosis after subureteral holmium laser lithotripsy was related to stone diameter, stone incarceration, degree of hydronephrosis, holmium laser injury of mucosa, and operation time (p < 0.05); further logistic regression analysis showed that a large stone diameter, stone incarceration, and moderate to severe hydronephrosis were independent risk factors for ureteral stenosis after ureteroscopic holmium laser lithotripsy (p < 0.05); According to H-L deviation degree and area under receiver operating characteristic curve test, the results show that the model has high accuracy (χ² = 2.475, p = 0.613) and differentiation (0.875 [95% confidence interval or CI: 0.817-0.919]), and the external verification of the nomogram prediction model was carried out by the verification group. The results showed that the prediction probability of the calibration curve was close to the actual probability and had a good consistency (area under the curve: 0.873 [95 CI: 0.822-0.914]). Conclusion: The established nomogram model exhibits high accuracy and discriminative ability. It can effectively identify high-risk groups, enabling timely prevention of ureteral stenosis and minimizing the risk of postoperative ureteral stenosis.