Molecular cluster, transmission characteristics, origin and dynamics analysis of HIV-1 CRF59_01B in China: A...

This study investigated for the HIV-1 CRF59_01B epidemic's spatiotemporal dynamics and its transmission networks in China.

Between 2007 and 2020, a total of 250 partial pol gene sequences of HIV-1 CRF59_01B were collected from four regions (10 Chinese provinces). Phylogenetic tree construction and cluster identification were then performed. The Bayesian skyline and birth-death susceptible-infected-removed models were employed for the phylodynamic analyses of subtypes and large clusters, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses and trait diffusion of these sequences were performed using Bayesian phylogenetic methods (beast-classic package). Distance-based molecular network analyses were performed to identify putative relationships.

Using a genetic distance threshold of 1.3 %, We identified 45 clusters that included 62.40 % (156/250) of the sequences. Three clusters (6.67 %, 3/45) had 10 or more sequences, and were considered "large clusters". Six clusters (13.33 %) included sequences from different regions (Southeast, Northeast, Southeast, and Central China). Thirteen clusters (28.89 %) included sequences of men who had sex with men only, three clusters (6.67 %) included sequences of heterosexuals only, and 12 clusters (26.67 %) included sequences of both groups. The substitution rate of CRF59_01B was 1.91 × 10^-3 substitutions per site per year [95 % highest posterior density (HPD) interval: 1.39 × 10^-3-2.49 × 10^-3)], the time to the most recent common ancestor of CRF59_01B was to be 1992.83 (95 % HPD: 1977.97-2002.81). A Bayesian skyline plot revealed that the effective population size of CRF59_01B increased from 2000 to 2015 and remained stable after 2015. The large clusters showed continuous growth from 2013 to 2020. Phylogeographic analysis showed that CRF59_01B B most likely originated in Southeast China, with a posterior probability of 97.44 %, and then spread to other regions.

Our study revealed the temporal and geographical origins of HIV-1 CRF59_01B as well as the process of transmission among various regions and risk groups in China, which can help develop targeted HIV prevention strategies.