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A Machine Learning Approach to Concussion Risk Estimation Among Players Exhibiting Visible Signs in Professional

Jared M Bruce1,2,3, Kaitlin E Riegler4, Willem Meeuwisse5

  • 1Department of Biomedical and Health Informatics, University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO, 64108, USA. brucejm@umkc.edu.

Sports Medicine (Auckland, N.Z.)
|September 17, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Concussion history significantly increases the risk of diagnosis in professional hockey players, even beyond visible signs. Machine learning models incorporating this history improve concussion identification accuracy.

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Area of Science:

  • Sports Medicine
  • Data Science in Sports
  • Injury Epidemiology

Background:

  • Identifying concussion risk factors like visible signs and injury mechanisms is crucial for accurate diagnosis.
  • Individual factors, such as a history of concussions, can enhance existing concussion risk models.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a machine learning concussion risk model for professional hockey players with visible signs.
  • To evaluate if including prior concussion history improves model performance.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized National Hockey League (NHL) spotter data (2018-2022) on visible signs and injury mechanisms.
  • Matched spotter events with medical records to confirm physician-diagnosed concussions.
  • Compared machine learning models: conditional inference tree, random forest, and logistic regression.

Main Results:

  • Models demonstrated high performance (AUC 0.79-0.82) in identifying concussions.
  • Concussion history was a significant factor in predictive models.
  • Each prior concussion increased the odds of a new diagnosis by 1.32 times.

Conclusions:

  • Developed simple tree and logistic algorithms for concussion screening and diagnostic support.
  • Player concussion history provides valuable risk information beyond visible signs and injury mechanisms.