Uncertainty Profiles and Treatment Preferences for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are pancreatic premalignant lesions frequently detected incidentally. Choosing between surgery and surveillance for IPMNs is rooted in uncertainty. We characterized patient preferences in IPMN management, and examined associations with patients' uncertainty profiles (risk perception, risk attitude, and uncertainty tolerance).

We conducted a cross-sectional survey drawn from a national opt-in panel. We simulated an encounter following an incidental computed tomography scan finding of an IPMN with a 5% cancer risk. We elicited participants' preferred treatment (surgery versus surveillance). Participant cancer risk perception, risk attitude (risk seeking versus risk averse), and uncertainty tolerance (comfort with the unknown) were determined using validated measures. Multivariate regression models assessed for independent predictors of treatment preference and risk perception.

The sample included 520 participants, ages 40-70, racially representative of the US population. Participants preferred surveillance (n = 331, 64%) over surgery (n = 189, 36%). Patients were significantly more likely to prefer surgery as their cancer risk perception increased (absolute difference = 12% from 1.0 standard deviation below to 1.0 standard deviation above the mean, 95% CI 3.5-20.2). Treatment preference was not significantly associated with risk attitude (P = 0.068) or uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.755). However, initial cancer risk perception was significantly associated with both uncertainty tolerance (P = 0.013) and baseline cancer anxiety (risk perception 16.4% versus 65%, not worried at all versus extremely worried, P < 0.001).

Patient preference varies widely for IPMN and is significantly associated with cancer risk perception, which is, in turn, significantly associated with uncertainty tolerance and cancer anxiety. These findings argue for the preference-sensitive nature of IPMN treatment decisions.