Machine learning-based discrimination of unipolar depression and bipolar disorder with streamlined shortlist in...

Variations in symptoms and indistinguishable depression episodes of unipolar depression (UD) and bipolar disorder (BD) make the discrimination difficult and time-consuming. For adolescents with high disease prevalence, an efficient diagnostic tool is important for the discrimination and treatment of BU and UD.

This multi-center cross-sectional study involved 1587 UD and 246 BD adolescents aged 12-18. A combination of standard questionnaires and demographic information was collected for the construction of a full-item list. The unequal patient number was balanced with three data balancing algorithms, and 4 machine learning algorithms were compared for the discrimination ability of UD and BD in three age groups: all ages, 12-15 and 16-18. Random forest (RF) with the highest accuracy were used to rank the importance of features/items and construct the 25-item shortlist. A separate dataset was used for the final performance evaluation with the shortlist, and the discrimination ability for UD and BD was investigated.

RF performed the best for UD and BD discrimination in all 3 age groups (AUC 0.88-0.90). The most important features that differentiate UD from BD belong to Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) and Loneliness Scale of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA). With RF and the 25-item shortlist, the diagnostic accuracy can still reach around 80 %, achieving 95 % of the accuracy levels obtained with all features.

Through machine learning algorithms, the most influencing factors for UD and BD classification were recombined and applied for rapid diagnosis. This highly feasible method holds the potential for convenient and accurate diagnosis of young patients in research and clinical practice.