Machine learning algorithm for predicting seizure control after temporal lobe resection using peri-ictal...

Brain resection is curative for a subset of patients with drug resistant epilepsy but up to half will fail to achieve sustained seizure freedom in the long term. There is a critical need for accurate prediction tools to identify patients likely to have recurrent postoperative seizures. Results from preclinical models and intracranial EEG in humans suggest that the window of time immediately before and after a seizure ("peri-ictal") represents a unique brain state with implications for clinical outcome prediction. Using a dataset of 294 patients who underwent temporal lobe resection for seizures, we show that machine learning classifiers can make accurate predictions of postoperative seizure outcome using 5 min of peri-ictal scalp EEG data that is part of universal presurgical evaluation (AUC 0.98, out-of-group testing accuracy > 90%). This is the first approach to seizure outcome prediction that employs a routine non-invasive preoperative study (scalp EEG) with accuracy range likely to translate into a clinical tool. Decision curve analysis (DCA) shows that compared to the prevalent clinical-variable based nomogram, use of the EEG-augmented approach could decrease the rate of unsuccessful brain resections by 20%.