Deterministic responses of biodiversity to climate change through exotic species invasions

Biodiversity is increasingly threatened by local extinction under global climate change. This may reflect direct effects of climate on poorly adapted native species or increased impacts of exotic species in these conditions, but their relative importance is poorly understood. By examining global occurrence records of 142 plant species found in the Yangtze River Valley, we found that the climatic niches of exotic species differed from those of natives, mainly reflecting exotics being most common in warmer, drier and more isothermal climates in their native ranges. These differences in climatic niches, especially temperature, predicted invasion intensity in 459 plots along a 1,800-km transect in the Yangtze River Valley. On the basis of this strong match between model predictions and field survey results, we predict that invasions will probably be more intense in future climatic conditions, especially from warming at the coldest sites. The direct negative effect of warming on native diversity was larger than the indirect effects mediated through increased invasions. However, moderate invasion increased communities' overall species diversity. More broadly, our study highlights the role of exotic species in the ecological response of regional biodiversity to global climate change.