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Climate change and tourism demand: Risks for extreme heat?

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  • 1Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, China.

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Extreme heat impacts tourism negatively, with summer heat decreasing visitors and autumn warmth increasing them. This study quanties the temperature-tourism relationship across China.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Tourism Studies
  • Economics

Background:

  • Extreme temperatures pose significant challenges to tourism experiences globally.
  • Understanding the precise impact of temperature on tourism is crucial for destination management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct the first nationwide estimation of the temperature-tourism response function in China.
  • To analyze the heterogeneous effects of temperature on tourism based on destination characteristics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a fine-grained panel dataset matching tourism and daily meteorological data for 280 Chinese cities (2005-2019).
  • Employed the temperature bins method to establish a non-linear temperature-tourism relationship.
  • Conducted heterogeneity analysis considering economic development, population, infrastructure, and tourism resources.

Main Results:

  • A non-linear relationship exists between temperature and tourism.
  • Increased summer temperatures correlate with decreased tourism arrivals and revenue.
  • Rising autumn temperatures are associated with increased tourism arrivals and revenue.

Conclusions:

  • Temperature dynamics significantly influence tourism patterns in China.
  • Findings provide critical insights for destination management and climate change adaptation strategies in the tourism sector.