Seasonal and geographic viability of high altitude balloon navigation

Control of the geographic location of high-altitude balloons has been desired for decades due to the cost and simplicity of the systems. These balloon systems rely on variations in wind direction with altitude so that when a balloon changes height, it also changes the direction of its horizontal motion. An altitude control system can thus also control the horizontal position by transitioning to a wind layer with favorable winds. The system's ability to navigate successfully thus relies on the existence of certain wind conditions. In this paper, we explore how the ability of a balloon to station-keep varies based on the geographic location and season. We used spatially and temporally variant ERA5 wind data with a tree-search-based algorithm to traverse potential trajectories, and we selected the altitude transitions that maximize time within 50 km of a target. The simulation's outputs show large variations in success across both latitude and season. Midlatitudes are particularly challenging for station-keeping, while lower latitudes are more favorable. Summer is typically more favorable than winter. This demonstrates that for all balloon systems, the ability to station-keep is highly variant and not universally possible.