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Diagnostic Performance of GPT-4o and Claude 3 Opus in Determining Causes of Death From Medical Histories and
Masanori Ishida1, Wataru Gonoi2, Keisuke Nyunoya2
1Department of Radiology, Tokyo Medical University Hospital, Tokyo, JPN.
Introduction:
This study evaluates the diagnostic performance of the latest large language models (LLMs), GPT-4o (OpenAI, San Francisco, CA, USA) and Claude 3 Opus (Anthropic, San Francisco, CA, USA), in determining causes of death from medical histories and postmortem CT findings.
Methods:
We included 100 adult cases whose postmortem CT scans were diagnosable for the causes of death using the gold standard of autopsy results. Their medical histories and postmortem CT findings were compiled, and clinical and imaging diagnoses of both the underlying and immediate causes of death, as well as their personal information, were carefully separated from the database to be shown to the LLMs. Both GPT-4o and Claude 3 Opus generated the top three differential diagnoses for each of the underlying or immediate causes of death based on the following three prompts: 1) medical history only; 2) postmortem CT findings only; and 3) both medical history and postmortem CT findings. The diagnostic performance of the LLMs was compared using McNemar's test.
Results:
For the underlying cause of death, GPT-4o achieved primary diagnostic accuracy rates of 78%, 72%, and 78%, while Claude 3 Opus achieved 72%, 56%, and 75% for prompts 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Including any of the top three differential diagnoses, GPT-4o's accuracy rates were 92%, 90%, and 92%, while Claude 3 Opus's rates were 93%, 69%, and 93% for prompts 1, 2, and 3, respectively. For the immediate cause of death, GPT-4o's primary diagnostic accuracy rates were 55%, 58%, and 62%, while Claude 3 Opus's rates were 60%, 62%, and 63% for prompts 1,2, and 3, respectively. For any of the top three differential diagnoses, GPT-4o's accuracy rates were 88% for prompt 1 and 91% for prompts 2 and 3, whereas Claude 3 Opus's rates were 92% for all three prompts. Significant differences between the models were observed for prompt two in diagnosing the underlying cause of death (p = 0.03 and <0.01 for the primary and top three differential diagnoses, respectively).
Conclusion:
Both GPT-4o and Claude 3 Opus demonstrated relatively high performance in diagnosing both the underlying and immediate causes of death using medical histories and postmortem CT findings.
