The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study

The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs.

The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model.

There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose.

During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.