Three-year hospital service use trajectories of people diagnosed with cancer: A retrospective cohort study

Information regarding hospital service use by people newly diagnosed with cancer can inform patterns of healthcare utilisation and resource demands. This study aims to identify characteristics of group-based trajectories of hospital service use three years after an individual was diagnosed with cancer; and determine factors predictive of trajectory group membership.

A group-based trajectory analysis of hospital service use of people aged ≥30 years who had a new diagnosis of cancer during 2018 in New South Wales, Australia was conducted. Linked cancer registry, hospital and mortality data were examined for a three-year period after diagnosis. Group-based trajectory models were derived based on number of hospital admissions. Multinominal logistic regression examined predictors of trajectory group membership.

Of the 44,577 new cancer diagnosis patients, 29,085 (65.2 %) were hospitalised at least once since their cancer diagnosis. Four distinct trajectory groups of hospital users were identified: Low (68.4 %), Very-Low (25.1 %), Moderate-Chronic (2.2 %), and Early-High (4.2 %). Key predictors of trajectory group membership were age group, cancer type, degree of cancer spread, prior history of cancer, receiving chemotherapy, and presence of comorbidities, including renal disease, moderate/serious liver disease, or anxiety.

Comorbidities should be considered in cancer treatment and management decision making. Caring for people diagnosed with cancer with multimorbidity requires multidisciplinary shared care.