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Published on: April 17, 2015
Intensifying droughts render more Sahel drylands unsuitable for cultivation
Nadir Ahmed Elagib1, Marwan M A Ali1, Ammar Ahmed Musa2
1Institute of Geography, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
Climate extremes and drought impact Sahel agriculture, with marginal land cultivation explaining half of crop yield variations. Sustainable farming requires flexible practices and better drought definitions based on agricultural impacts.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Two-fifths of the global population faces land and water shortages for food production by 2050.
- The Sahel region experiences underperforming croplands due to climate extremes and drought.
- Cultivation of marginal lands in the Sahel has increased, impacting crop yields.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze Sahel dryland dynamics and the reasons for underperforming croplands.
- To develop a drought index to identify drought, climate, and cultivable zones.
- To provide insights for more effective agricultural policy interventions in the Sahel.
Main Methods:
- Development of a gridded multi-criteria drought index for the growing season (June-October).
- Analysis of spatial and temporal uniformity of the drought index.
- Utilizing data from Sahelian Sudan (1.03 million km²) from 1940-2020.
Main Results:
- Marginal land cultivation significantly correlates with crop yield variations for sorghum and millet.
- Drought conditions expand hyper-arid areas and shrink arid areas, limiting farming opportunities.
- Semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones show uniform climate, suitable for sustainable agriculture with skillful forecasting.
Conclusions:
- Sahelian agriculture requires drought definitions based on agricultural impacts, not just meteorological conditions.
- Flexible agricultural practices and risk-reduction plans are crucial for arid and marginal lands.
- Skillful climate forecasting should guide policy towards sustainable agricultural development in the Sahel.
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