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  1. Home
  3. A Novel Tool For Predicting The Risk Of Cancer-specific Early Death In Older Patients With Primary Malignant Melanoma Of Skin: A Population-based Analysis.
  1. Home
  3. A Novel Tool For Predicting The Risk Of Cancer-specific Early Death In Older Patients With Primary Malignant Melanoma Of Skin: A Population-based Analysis.

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A novel tool for predicting the risk of cancer-specific early death in older patients with primary malignant melanoma

Yan Lei1, Shucui Wang2, Jun Chen1

  • 1Department of Dermatology, Ninth People's Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.

Frontiers in Oncology
|September 23, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.
Keywords:
SEERcancer-specific early deathmelanomanomogramolderskin

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This study developed a diagnostic nomogram to predict early death in older patients with primary skin malignant melanoma (MM). The nomogram accurately identifies high-risk individuals, aiding personalized treatment and improving survival benefits.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Geriatric Medicine
  • Dermatology

Background:

  • Primary malignant melanoma (MM) of the skin poses a significant health threat, particularly to the elderly, increasing the risk of premature mortality.
  • Identifying individuals at high risk of early death is crucial for effective management of skin MM in older adults.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a predictive diagnostic nomogram for early mortality risk in elderly patients diagnosed with primary skin MM.
  • To identify independent risk factors associated with cancer-specific early death in this patient cohort.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000-2019) for patient data.
  • Employed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine independent risk factors.
  • Constructed and validated a diagnostic nomogram using training and validation cohorts (7:3 ratio).
  • Assessed nomogram performance via calibration curves, ROC, and DCA.

    • Main Results:

    • Included 2,615 older patients with primary skin MM.
    • Identified age, histology, liver metastasis, tumor stage, surgery, therapy, and radiation as independent risk factors for early death.
    • The developed nomogram demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUCs of 0.966 and 0.971 for training and validation cohorts, respectively).
    • Calibration curves showed strong agreement between predicted and observed probabilities.

    Conclusions:

    • A validated diagnostic nomogram can effectively predict cancer-specific early death in older patients with primary skin MM.
    • This tool empowers clinicians to better identify high-risk individuals, enabling tailored treatment strategies and improved patient survival outcomes.