Globally suitable areas for Lycorma delicatula based on an optimized Maxent model

Area of Science:

• Invasive Species Biology
• Ecological Modeling
• Climate Change Impact Assessment

Background:

• Lycorma delicatula (spotted lanternfly) is a significant invasive pest causing widespread economic damage.
• Effective management strategies require accurate predictions of the species' potential distribution.
• Current understanding of the spotted lanternfly's global ecological niche is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict the current and future global distribution of Lycorma delicatula.
• To identify key environmental variables influencing its distribution.
• To inform pest management and control strategies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Maxent model with occurrence records and environmental variables.
• Optimized model parameters using the corrected Akaike information criterion.
• Predicted suitable areas under current and future climate scenarios (2041-2100).

Main Results:

• The mean temperature of the driest quarter was identified as the most critical environmental variable.
• Currently suitable areas include East Asia, the central/eastern United States, and southern Europe.
• Future climate scenarios predict an increase in suitable areas, with northward expansion likely.

Conclusions:

• The spotted lanternfly's suitable habitat is projected to expand significantly under future climate change.
• Northward expansion of suitable areas is a key trend to monitor.
• Prioritizing pest management in high-risk areas is crucial for mitigating economic losses.