Individual differences in belief updating and phasic arousal are related to psychosis proneness

Many decisions entail the updating of beliefs about the state of the environment by accumulating noisy sensory evidence. This form of probabilistic reasoning may go awry in psychosis. Computational theory shows that optimal belief updating in environments subject to hidden changes in their state requires a dynamic modulation of the evidence accumulation process. Recent empirical findings implicate transient responses of pupil-linked central arousal systems to individual evidence samples in this modulation. Here, we analyzed behavior and pupil responses during evidence accumulation in a changing environment in a community sample of human participants. We also assessed their subclinical psychotic experiences (psychosis proneness). Participants most prone to psychosis showed overall less flexible belief updating profiles, with diminished behavioral impact of evidence samples occurring late during decision formation. These same individuals also exhibited overall smaller pupil responses and less reliable pupil encoding of computational variables governing the dynamic belief updating. Our findings provide insights into the cognitive and physiological bases of psychosis proneness and open paths to unraveling the pathophysiology of psychotic disorders.