Development and Validation of a Risk Predictive Model for Small Intracranial Aneurysms in Adults Over a Five-Year...

Objective The optimal management of a small intracranial aneurysm (sIA) remains a challenge due to the lack of a size-specific risk predictive model for aneurysm rupture. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram-based risk predictive model for sIA. Methods A total of 382 patients harboring 215 ruptured and 167 unruptured small intracranial aneurysms (uSIAs) (≤ 7 mm) were recruited and divided into training and validation cohorts. Risk factors for the construction of a nomogram were selected from clinical and aneurysmal features by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression. The nomogram for risk of rupture was evaluated in both the training and validation cohorts for discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results Hyperlipidemia (odds ratio (OR)=2.74, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.322~5.956, P=0.008), the presence of a daughter dome (OR=3.068, 95%CI=1.311~7.598, P=0.012), larger size-to-neck ratio (SN) (OR=1.807, 95%CI=1.131~3.063, P=0.021) and size ratio (SR) (OR=2.221, 95%CI=1.262~4.025, P=0.007) were selected as independent risk factors for sIA rupture and used for construction of nomogram. Internal validation by bootstrap sampling showed the Concordance index (C index) of 0.756 for the nomogram. The calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a P value of 0.847, indicating the model was well-fitted. Additionally, decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that the predictive model has good clinical usefulness, providing net benefits across a range of threshold probabilities, thus supporting its application in clinical decision-making. Conclusion The risk prediction model can reliably predict the risk of sIA rupture, which may provide an important reference for optimizing the therapeutic strategy.