A robust decision-making approach for designing coastal groundwater quality monitoring networks

This paper presents a new approach to the spatiotemporal design of groundwater quality monitoring networks for coastal aquifers. A fusion model combines the outputs of several developed simulation models to make estimates more accurate. A modified GALDIT method is used to incorporate the aquifer vulnerability to saltwater intrusion. The value of information (VOI) theory is applied to determine sufficient monitoring wells. The groundwater quality monitoring network is designed by employing a robust decision-making (RDM) approach under different management strategies and economic considerations. This approach incorporates the deep uncertainties of some critical variables, including water level and total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration at the coastline and pumping flow rates of agricultural wells. The new methodology is implemented in the coastal Qom-Kahak aquifer, Iran. The results illustrate that the combination model has significantly improved evaluation criteria compared to individual prediction models. The fusion model results indicate that thirty monitoring wells would be ideal. The RDM-based analyses in the Qom-Kahak aquifer showed that an optimal network with 30 monitoring wells outperforms the current network regarding various criteria, such as VOI and variance of estimation error. The new well configuration also demonstrates a suitable spatial distribution. Given that the current sampling frequencies are unsuitable for areas with varying vulnerabilities, we recommend sampling every 3 months in areas with moderate vulnerabilities and once every three seasons in areas with low vulnerabilities, based on the information transfer index. Finally, a management strategy in which the pumping rate should be less than 60% of the current rate is suggested to prevent saltwater intrusion into the aquifer.