Ensemble surrogate modeling of advective-dispersive transport with intraparticle diffusion model for column-leaching...

Column-leaching tests are a common approach for assessing the leaching behavior and resulting environmental risks of contaminated soils and waste materials, which are frequently reused for various construction purposes. The observed breakthrough curves of the contaminants are influenced by the complex dynamics of solute transport and kinetic inter-phase mass transfer. Disentangling these interactions necessitates numerical models. However, inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis can be time-consuming, especially when sorption kinetics are explicitly described by intraparticle diffusion, which requires discretizing the domain both in the flow direction along the column axis and inside the grains. To circumvent the need for such computationally intensive models, we have developed two different ensemble surrogate models. These models employ two separate ensemble methods: random forest stacking and inverse-distance weighted interpolation. Each method is applied to base surrogate models that cover different parts of the parameter space. The base surrogate models use the method of Extremely randomized Trees (ExtraTrees). The defined parameter range is based on the German standard for column-leaching tests. To optimize the base surrogate models, we utilized adaptive-sampling methods based on three distinct infill criteria: maximizing the expected improvement, staying within a certain Mahalanobis distance to the best estimate (both for exploitation), and maximizing the standard deviation (for exploration). The ensemble surrogate model demonstrates excellent performance in emulating the behavior of the original numerical model, with a relative root mean squared error of 0.09. We applied our proposed ensemble surrogate model to estimate the complete posterior parameter distribution using Simulation-Based Inference, specifically Neural Posterior Estimation, to determine the full parameter distribution conditioned on copper-leaching data from two different soils. Samples drawn from the posterior distribution align perfectly with the observed data for both the surrogate and original models.