Machine learning-enhanced stochastic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the ICRP human respiratory tract model...

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed the reference Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM), detailed in ICRP Publications 66 and 130, to estimate the deposition and clearance of inhaled radionuclides. These models utilize reference anatomical and physiological parameters for particle deposition (PD). Biokinetic models further estimate retention and excretion of internalized particulates, aiding the derivation of inhalation dose coefficients (DC). This study aimed to assess variability in deterministic¹³¹I biokinetic and dosimetry models through stochastic analysis using the updated HRTM from ICRP Publication 130. The complexities of the ICRP PD model were reconstructed into a new, independent computational model. Comparison with reference data for total PD fractions for reference worker, solely a nose breather, covering activity median aerodynamic diameters from 0.3μm to 20μm, showed a 1.04% relative and 0.7% absolute difference, demonstrating good agreement with ICRP deposition fractions. The deterministic DC module was reconstructed in Python and expanded for stochastic analysis, systematically expanding deposition components from HRTM and assigning probability distribution functions to uncertain parameters. These were integrated into an in-house stochastic radiological exposure dose calculator, utilizing latin hypercube sampling. A case of an occupational radionuclide intake was explored, in which biodistribution and committed effective DC (CEDC) were computed for¹³¹I type F, considering a lognormal particle size distribution with a median of 5μm. Results showed the published ICRP reference CEDC marginally exceeds the 75th percentile of observed samples, with log-gamma distribution as the best-fit probability distribution. A Random Forest regression model with SHapley Additive exPlanations was employed for sensitivity analysis to predict feature importance. The analysis identified the HRTM particle transport rates scaling factor, followed by the aerodynamic deposition efficiency in the alveolar interstitial region as the most impactful parameters. This study offers a unique stochastic approach on inhaled particulate metabolism, enhancing radiation consequence management, medical countermeasures, and dose reconstruction for epidemiological studies.