Vectorcardiography Predicts Heart Failure in Patients Following ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Modeling outcomes, such as onset of heart failure (HF) or mortality, in patients following ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is challenging but clinically very useful. The acute insult following a myocardial infarction and chronic degeneration seen in HF involve a similar process where a loss of cardiomyocytes and abnormal remodeling lead to pump failure. This process may alter the strength and direction of the heart's net depolarization signal. We hypothesize that changes over time in unique parameters extracted using vectorcardiography (VCG) have the potential to predict outcomes in patients post-STEMI and could eventually be used as a noninvasive and cost-effective surveillance tool for characterizing the severity and progression of HF to guide evidence-based therapies.

We identified 162 patients discharged from Michigan Medicine between 2016 and 2021 with a diagnosis of acute STEMI. For each patient, a single 12-lead ECG > 1 week pre-STEMI and > 1 week post-STEMI were collected. A set of unique VCG parameters were derived by analyzing features of the QRS complex. We used LASSO regression analysis incorporating clinical variables and VCG parameters to create a predictive model for HF, mortality, or the composite at 90, 180, and 365 days post-STEMI.

The VCG model is most predictive for HF onset at 90 days with a robust AUC. Variables from the HF model mitigating or driving risk, at a p < 0.05, were primarily parameters that assess the area swept by the depolarization vector including the 3D integral and convex hull in select spatial octants and quadrants.