Mapping threatened Thai bovids provides opportunities for improved conservation outcomes in Asia

Wild bovids provide important ecosystem functions as seed dispersers and vegetation modifiers. Five wild bovids remain in Thailand: gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), wild water buffalo (Bubalus arnee), mainland serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) and Chinese goral (Naemorhedus griseus). Their populations and habitats have declined substantially and become fragmented by land-use change. We use ecological niche models to quantify how much potential suitable habitat for these species remains within protected areas in Asia and then specifically Thailand. We combined species occurrence data from several sources (e.g. mainly camera traps and direct observation) with environmental variables and species-specific and single, large accessible areas in ensemble models to generate suitability maps, using out-of-sample predictions to validate model performance against new independent data. Gaur, banteng and buffalo models showed reasonable model accuracy throughout the entire distribution (greater than or equal to 62%) and in Thailand (greater than or equal to 80%), whereas serow and goral models performed poorly for the entire distribution and in Thailand, though 5 km movement buffers markedly improved the performance for serow. Large suitable areas were identified in Thailand and India for gaur, Cambodia and Thailand for banteng and India for buffalo. Over 50% of suitable habitat is located outside protected areas, highlighting the need for habitat management and conflict mitigation outside protected areas.