Trends and risk indicators for high fertility among Nigerian female youth aged 15-29 years: A pooled data analysis

Nigeria's age-specific fertility rates are highest among the country's youth population, yet little is known about the factors that influence female youth fertility in Nigeria. This study examined fertility trends and risk factors associated with high fertility among Nigerian female youth aged 15 to 29.

We examined a pooled data from four rounds of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (conducted in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018). Of the data, 62,713 female youth were extracted for this study. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were employed.

The results show that 21.5 % of the sample had 3 or more children. Between 2003 and 2018, there was a drop of only 28 live births per 1000 women among the youth. Female youth with less than a secondary education were twice as likely to have 1-2 children (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.54, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.43-1.66) and three times as likely to have 3 or more children (aOR = 3.32, 95 % CI = 3.03-3.64) compared to those with a secondary education or higher. Unmarried female youth were 95 % less likely to have 1-2 children and 98 % less likely to have 3 or more children. Additionally, female youth from the lowest-income families were twice as likely to have 1-2 children (aOR = 2.06, 95 % CI = 1.84-1.84) and four times as likely to have 3 or more children (aOR = 3.50, 95 % CI = 3.03-4.05) compared to those from the highest-income families.

To control high fertility, significant improvement in education, employment, ending early marriage, poverty and unfavorable pronatalist cultural norms, are required.