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Revising Alpine summer temperatures since 881 CE.

Eileen Kuhl1, Jan Esper1,2, Lea Schneider3

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A new Alpine tree ring record reveals significant pre-industrial climate variations, including a cold period in the late Medieval times and the coldest summer in 1258 CE. This research provides crucial context for understanding recent European heat waves and global warming trends.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Dendrochronology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Europe faces increasing heat waves, necessitating context from pre-industrial climate variability.
  • Understanding past warm-season changes is crucial for assessing current trends and extremes under global warming.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reconstruct past warm-season temperatures in the Swiss Alps using larch tree rings.
  • To provide a high-resolution, long-term climate record for Western Europe.
  • To contextualize recent European heat waves within a broader historical climate framework.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology from 352 larch trees (Larix decidua) in the Swiss Alps.
  • Utilized machine learning to extend the chronology back to 881 CE using historical wood samples.
  • Calibrated the chronology against May-August temperatures in Western Europe (r=0.8).

Main Results:

  • The new Alpine record shows warmer conditions in the 10th century, followed by a cold late Medieval period.
  • A less pronounced Little Ice Age culminated in the 1810s, preceding prolonged anthropogenic warming.
  • The 1258 CE summer was reconstructed as the coldest in Western Europe, potentially linked to the Samalas eruption.

Conclusions:

  • The Alpine MXD record offers a robust, high-fidelity reconstruction of past European warm-season temperatures.
  • This new record overcomes variance biases in existing reconstructions, setting a new standard for site control and verification.
  • The findings enhance our understanding of natural climate variability and its role in extreme events.