The order of stimuli matters when learning second-order transitional probabilities

The order of stimuli within sequences and the transitional probabilities (TPs) it generates are central information in sequence processing. However, less is known about what type of information and how it is extracted by general learning mechanisms. The present study focused on statistical learning of second-order TPs. Second-order TPs are involved when only the combination of two stimuli predicts the third. In a first experiment, TPs depended crucially on the order of presentation of a pair $$ , which led to different predictions depending on the order of the stimuli (i.e., ABC vs. BAF). Eight visuomotor sequences governed by second-order TPs were used and response times (RTs) were recorded for each transition. The task included a learning phase followed by a switch phase during which the second-order TP were reversed (e.g., the sequences ABC and BAF became respectively ABF and BAC). A decrease of RTs between the second and the third stimulus during the learning phase and an increase of RTs during the switch phase suggested that variations of orders within second-order TPs could be learned. Further analyses, however, indicated that such learning was difficult for most participants. A second experiment showed that the difficulty of learning was not solely due to the difficulty to pick up the effect of order of presentation, but that learning second-order transitional probabilities in addition to order would be the main obstacle. These experiments suggest that statistical learning is capable of learning complex associations, even if this remains a challenge for human cognition.