We Should Celebrate, Not Censor, Learning From Epidemiologic History

Area of Science:

• Neuroscience
• Epidemiology
• Risk Assessment

Background:

• The link between repeated head impacts (RHI) and chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is debated.
• Skeptics question the strength and causality of this relationship, citing objections to epidemiologic studies.
• This controversy echoes historical tactics used to create doubt about the harms of tobacco products.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the "manufactured doubt" surrounding RHI and CTE.
• To explain why the analogy between RHI and tobacco's link to lung cancer is scientifically valid.
• To advocate for proactive risk management based on persuasive evidence, even without absolute certainty.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of scientific literature and historical parallels.
• Examination of risk assessment and management principles.
• Critique of logical fallacies used to create doubt.

Main Results:

• The "manufactured doubt" regarding RHI and CTE employs fallacies similar to those used by the tobacco industry.
• The analogy to tobacco and lung cancer is scientifically apt for understanding risk assessment and management.
• Delaying action based on manufactured doubt hinders the utilitarian imperative to protect health.

Conclusions:

• The tactics used to dispute the link between RHI and CTE are a form of manufactured doubt.
• Risk management principles support taking protective measures against RHI exposure, analogous to early smoking cessation efforts.
• Prioritizing low-regret actions based on strong evidence is crucial while scientific certainty evolves.