Quantitative chest computed tomography predicts mortality in systemic sclerosis: A longitudinal study

Quantitative chest computed tomography (qCT) methods are new tools that objectively measure parenchymal abnormalities and vascular features on CT images in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD). We aimed to investigate whether the qCT measures are predictors of 5-year mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc).

Patients diagnosed with SSc were retrospectively selected from 2011 to 2022. Patients should have had volumetric high-resolution CTs (HRCTs) and pulmonary function tests (PFTs) performed at baseline and at 24 months of follow-up. The following parameters were evaluated in HRCTs using Computer-Aided Lung Informatics for Pathology Evaluation and Rating (CALIPER): ground glass opacities, reticular pattern, honeycombing, and pulmonary vascular volume. Factors associated with death were evaluated by Kaplan‒Meier survival curves and multivariate analysis models. Semiquantitative analysis of the HRCTs images was also performed.

Seventy-one patients were included (mean age, 54.2 years). Eleven patients (15.49%) died during the follow-up, and all patients had ILD. As shown by Kaplan‒Meier curves, survival was worse among patients with an ILD extent (ground glass opacities + reticular pattern + honeycombing) ≥ 6.32%, a reticular pattern ≥ 1.41% and a forced vital capacity (FVC) < 70% at baseline. The independent predictors of mortality by multivariate analysis were a higher reticular pattern (Exp 2.70, 95%CI 1.26-5.82) on qCT at baseline, younger age (Exp 0.906, 95%CI 0.826-0.995), and absolute FVC decline ≥ 5% at follow-up (Exp 15.01, 95%CI 1.90-118.5), but not baseline FVC. Patients with extensive disease (>20% extension) by semiquantitative analysis according to Goh's staging system had higher disease extension on qCT at baseline and follow-up.

This study showed that the reticular pattern assessed by baseline qCT may be a useful tool in the clinical practice for assessing lung damage and predicting mortality in SSc.