Forecasting glucose values for patients with type 1 diabetes using heart rate data

Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) is a chronic metabolic disease affecting millions of people worldwide. T1DM requires patients to continuously monitor their blood glucose levels. Due to pancreatic dysfunctions, patients use insulin injections to correct glucose values by synthetic insulin. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) is a system which includes an algorithm allowing to measure (and in some cases to predict) glucose levels at a frequent sampling time. This enable implementing advanced devices, including automated insulin pump delivery. Nevertheless, CGM still presents some limitations, including (i) the delay (time lag) in detecting change in glucose levels compared to the traditional blood glucose measurement, and (ii) the lack of a sufficient and acceptable time to accurately predict glucose values.

We propose a framework based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model to forecast both short- and long-term glucose values using heart rate (HR) and interstitial glucose (IG) values. The framework acquires HR and IG data and predicts glucose values with higher precision compared to state-of-the-art models. For training and testing the proposed framework, we used the OhioT1DM Dataset, which includes physiological data such as HR and IG values collected over an 8-week observation period. Additionally, we validated our framework using two other glucose datasets to ensure its generalizability across different HR and IG sampling frequencies. The proposed framework can be used to optimize the CGM system by incorporating patient HR measurements, thereby improving the prediction of short- and long-term glucose levels and reducing risks associated with conditions like hypoglycemia.

Experimental tests were conducted using HR and IG data from the OhioT1DM Dataset, as well as from two additional T1DM patient datasets. We analyzed 6 patients from Ohio dataset while we validated the algorithm on 23 patients coming from two different university hospitals (6 from the University of Catanzaro medical hospital and 17 gathered from a validated study at IRCCS San Matteo Hospital in Pavia) for a total number of 29 patients. Our framework demonstrates an improvement in forecasting IG values in terms of RMSE and MAE for different choice of prediction horizons (PH). In the case of a PH of 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 min, we reach an RMSE of 5.0, 9.38, 15.27, 20.48, and 34.16 respectively. The framework is freely available as an open-source, with an example dataset on a GitHub repository (see https://github.com/rafgia/attention_to_glycemia).

Our framework offers a promising solution for improving glucose level prediction and management in T1DM patients. By leveraging a GRU model and incorporating HR and IG values, we achieve more precise glucose level forecasting compared to state-of-the-art models. This approach not only enhances the accuracy of glucose predictions but also mitigates the risks associated with hypoglycemia.