The development of ecological systems along paths of least resistance

A long-standing question in biology is whether there are common principles that characterize the development of ecological systems (the appearance of a group of taxa), regardless of organismal diversity and environmental context.^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11} Classic ecological theory holds that these systems develop following a sequenced, orderly process that generally proceeds from fast-growing to slow-growing taxa and depends on life-history trade-offs.^2,12,13 However, it is also possible that this developmental order is simply the path with the least environmental resistance for survival of the component species and hence favored by probability alone. Here, we use theory and data to show that the order from fast- to slow-growing taxa is the most likely developmental path for diverse systems when local taxon interactions self-organize in light of environmental resistance. First, we demonstrate theoretically that a sequenced development is more likely than a simultaneous one, at least until the number of iterations becomes so large as to be ecologically implausible. We then show that greater diversity of taxa and life histories improves the likelihood of a sequenced order from fast- to slow-growing taxa. Using data from bacterial and metazoan systems,^{14,15,16,17,18,19} we present empirical evidence that the developmental order of ecological systems moves along the paths of least environmental resistance. The capacity of simple principles to explain the trend in the developmental order of diverse ecological systems paves the way to an enhanced understanding of collective features of life.