Predicting COVID-19 booster immunogenicity against future SARS-CoV-2 variants and the benefits of vaccine updates

The ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has led to a move to update vaccine antigens in 2022 and 2023. These updated antigens were chosen and approved based largely on in vitro neutralisation titres against recent SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, unavoidable delays in vaccine manufacture and distribution meant that the updated booster vaccine was no longer well-matched to the circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant by the time of its deployment. Understanding whether the updating of booster vaccine antigens improves immune responses to subsequent SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants is a major priority in justifying future vaccine updates. Here we analyse all available data on the immunogenicity of variants containing SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and their ability to neutralise later circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. We find that updated booster antigens give a 1.4-fold [95% CI: 1.07-1.82] greater increase in neutralising antibody levels when compared with a historical vaccine immunogen. We then use this to predict the relative protection that can be expected from an updated vaccine even when the circulating variant has evolved away from the updated vaccine immunogen. These findings help inform the rollout of future booster vaccination programmes.