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Published on: July 26, 2019
Estimates of Potential Demand for Measles and Rubella Microarray Patches
Lidia K Kayembe1, Leah S Fischer1, Bishwa B Adhikari1
1The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA.
Abstract:
Global measles vaccine coverage has stagnated at approximately 85% for over a decade. By simplifying vaccine logistics and administration, the measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) may improve coverage. Clinical trials have demonstrated similar safety and immunogenicity in 9-month-old infants for MR-MAPs compared with syringe-and-needle vaccination. To aid commercialization, we present estimates of MR-MAP demand. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate demand for MR-MAPs using data from 180 WHO countries during 2000-2016. Five immunization scenarios were analyzed: (1a) Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)-eligible countries and (1b) WHO countries where preventive SIAs are routinely conducted; (2) SIAs and outbreak response immunization in all WHO countries; (3) routine immunization (RI) and SIAs in six high-burden measles countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); (4) RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries; and (5) hard-to-reach populations. MR-MAP demand varied greatly across scenarios. Forecasts for 2025-2034 estimate from 137 million doses in hard-to-reach populations (scenario 5) to 2.587 billion doses for RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries (scenario 4). When policymakers and manufacturers assess MR-MAP demand, they may consider multiple scenarios to allow for a complete consideration of potential markets and public health needs.
Insights
The measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) offers a simpler alternative to traditional vaccines, potentially boosting global measles vaccine coverage. Demand forecasts vary widely, highlighting the need for diverse market considerations.
Area of Science:
- Vaccinology
- Global Health
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Global measles vaccine coverage has plateaued around 85% for over a decade.
- The measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) presents a potential solution to improve vaccine logistics and administration.
- Clinical trials confirm MR-MAPs are as safe and immunogenic as traditional needle-and-syringe vaccines in infants.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the potential demand for MR-MAPs to support commercialization efforts.
- To analyze demand across various immunization scenarios and geographical contexts.
- To inform policymakers and manufacturers about the market potential for MR-MAPs.
Main Methods:
- A spreadsheet-based tool was developed to estimate MR-MAP demand.
- Data from 180 WHO countries between 2000-2016 were utilized.
- Five distinct immunization scenarios were analyzed, including Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs), routine immunization (RI), outbreak response, and hard-to-reach populations.
Main Results:
- Estimated MR-MAP demand varied significantly across the analyzed scenarios.
- Forecasts for 2025-2034 ranged from 137 million doses for hard-to-reach populations to 2.587 billion doses for combined RI and SIAs in high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries.
- Scenario 4 (RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries) projected the highest demand.
Conclusions:
- MR-MAPs have the potential to significantly impact global measles vaccination efforts.
- Policymakers and manufacturers should consider multiple demand scenarios to fully assess market opportunities and public health needs.
- The adoption of MR-MAPs could be crucial in addressing stagnant global measles vaccine coverage.
