Estimates of Potential Demand for Measles and Rubella Microarray Patches.

Area of Science:

• Vaccinology
• Global Health
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Global measles vaccine coverage has plateaued around 85% for over a decade.
• The measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) presents a potential solution to improve vaccine logistics and administration.
• Clinical trials confirm MR-MAPs are as safe and immunogenic as traditional needle-and-syringe vaccines in infants.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the potential demand for MR-MAPs to support commercialization efforts.
• To analyze demand across various immunization scenarios and geographical contexts.
• To inform policymakers and manufacturers about the market potential for MR-MAPs.

Main Methods:

• A spreadsheet-based tool was developed to estimate MR-MAP demand.
• Data from 180 WHO countries between 2000-2016 were utilized.
• Five distinct immunization scenarios were analyzed, including Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs), routine immunization (RI), outbreak response, and hard-to-reach populations.

Main Results:

• Estimated MR-MAP demand varied significantly across the analyzed scenarios.
• Forecasts for 2025-2034 ranged from 137 million doses for hard-to-reach populations to 2.587 billion doses for combined RI and SIAs in high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries.
• Scenario 4 (RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries) projected the highest demand.

Conclusions:

• MR-MAPs have the potential to significantly impact global measles vaccination efforts.
• Policymakers and manufacturers should consider multiple demand scenarios to fully assess market opportunities and public health needs.
• The adoption of MR-MAPs could be crucial in addressing stagnant global measles vaccine coverage.