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Does the rebound effect offset low-carbon gains from technological progress in China's transportation sector?
Caiquan Bai1, Xing Yi2, Daoping Wang3
1The Center for Economic Research, Shandong University, Ji'nan, Shandong 250100, PR China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|September 28, 2024
Summary
China's transportation sector faces carbon rebound effects (CRE) from technological progress, with half of provinces experiencing
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Economics
- Transportation Studies
Background:
- The transportation sector is a significant source of carbon emissions, crucial for meeting China's carbon peak and neutrality targets.
- Technological progress in transportation is key to emission reduction but can be counteracted by rebound effects.
- Understanding the carbon rebound effect (CRE) is vital for effective emission reduction strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify and analyze the carbon rebound effect (CRE) in China's transportation sector.
- To investigate the impact of technological progress on CRE across different Chinese provinces.
- To provide insights for policymakers to tailor regional strategies for emission reduction.
Main Methods:
- Utilized nonparametric frontier methods for CRE calculation and analysis.
- Examined data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning from 2006 to 2021.
- Analyzed temporal fluctuations and regional variations in CRE.
Main Results:
- The average CRE in China's transportation sector was 69.19%, ranging from 20% to 210% between 2006 and 2021.
- Half of the provinces experienced 'backfire' effects, where rebound emissions negated low-carbon gains.
- CRE varied significantly by region, with western provinces showing the highest CRE (111.85%) and eastern provinces the lowest (57.96%).
Conclusions:
- Technological progress in transportation significantly impacts carbon emissions, but CRE can diminish its effectiveness.
- Economic policy shocks influence CRE, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies.
- Regional disparities in CRE necessitate tailored policy interventions for effective carbon emission reduction in China's transportation sector.
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