Integrating social learning and network formation for social tipping towards a sustainable future

Numerous psychological biases shape how we respond to observing others conforming to or diverging from social norms. Depending on our social networks, we may be more influenced by societal majorities, such as the widespread consumption of meat or frequent air travel, or by the sustainable lifestyles of our closest friends. The evolution of social norms is shaped by personal preferences, values, beliefs, and the structure of social networks. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for promoting a cultural shift towards sustainability, yet our grasp of how normative transformations occur remains limited. In this paper, we simulate an agent-based model in which agents choose between maintaining the status quo or adopting an alternative, engaging in a coordination game. Our model illustrates that interventions aimed at changing individual preferences may fail if the population is structured in polarised networks, where agents with similar preferences cluster together and primarily interact within their groups. These echo chambers limit the effectiveness of preference-based interventions. However, we show that a subsequent intervention that increases the salience of behaviours from agents with dissimilar preferences can successfully tip the population from a status quo equilibrium to an alternative norm equilibrium. This paper outlines the challenges policymakers face in designing interventions for catalysing positive social norm changes. We argue for a reevaluation of current methodologies for modelling and empirically investigating norm change. Our primary recommendation for future research is a more comprehensive incorporation of the myriad ways individuals respond to social information and network formation.