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Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 11, 2025

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Monkeys Predict US Elections.

Yaoguang Jiang1, Annamarie Huttunen2, Naz Belkaya3

  • 1Department of Neuroscience, Perelman School of Medicine.

Biorxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
|September 30, 2024
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Rhesus macaques can predict election winners based solely on candidate photos. Their gaze bias towards the perceived "loser" reveals an unconscious link between facial masculinity and election success, suggesting evolutionary roots in voting behavior.

Keywords:
Biological sciences - NeuroscienceSocial sciences - Psychological and Cognitive Sciencesecological rationalityelectionfacial masculinitygazenon-human primate

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary psychology
  • Political science
  • Primatology

Background:

  • Voting behavior is complex and not always rational.
  • Physical traits can influence voter decisions more than policies.
  • The evolutionary basis of human political decision-making is not fully understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if non-human primates can predict election outcomes based on visual cues.
  • To explore the role of facial features in election success.
  • To test the hypothesis that voting behavior is influenced by evolutionarily conserved adaptations.

Main Methods:

  • Rhesus macaques were presented with pairs of U.S. gubernatorial and senatorial candidate photos.
  • Monkey gaze duration towards each candidate was recorded.
  • Facial features of candidates were analyzed for traits like masculinity and jaw prominence.

Main Results:

  • Monkeys spent more time looking at the losing candidate than the winning candidate.
  • This gaze bias accurately predicted binary election outcomes and vote share.
  • More masculine facial features correlated with higher election win probability, with jaw prominence being a key factor.

Conclusions:

  • Non-human primates can implicitly predict election results using only visual information.
  • Human voting behavior may be influenced by unconscious responses to evolutionarily conserved cues of physical prowess.
  • Ancestral adaptations shared with non-human primates appear to shape aspects of voting behavior.