Predictive modelling of the UK physician associate supply: 2014-2038
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.The UK physician associate (PA) workforce is projected to grow significantly, potentially meeting future demand. However, addressing PA attrition through support and career development is crucial for sustained growth.
Area Of Science
- Healthcare Workforce Planning
- Medical Professional Development
- Health Services Research
Background
- The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan targets 10,000 physician associates (PAs) by 2036/7.
- Accurate forecasting of PA supply is essential for meeting healthcare demands.
Purpose Of The Study
- To project the UK physician associate (PA) supply up to 2038 using three distinct modelling approaches.
- To assess the potential growth of the PA profession in the UK.
Main Methods
- Utilized Faculty of Physician Associates census data (2014-2021) for baseline estimates.
- Employed linear regression (LRM), exponential regression (ERM), and time-series forecasting (TSFM) models.
- Incorporated attrition rates from other healthcare professions into the projections.
Main Results
- Linear regression modelling (LRM) projected up to 8,232 clinically available PAs (cPAs) by 2038, accounting for attrition.
- Time-series forecasting (TSFM) optimistically projected an upper limit of 13,922 cPAs by 2038.
- Broad agreement was observed between LRM and TSFM, suggesting potential for meeting future PA demand.
Conclusions
- The projected PA supply indicates that future demand may be met.
- Physician associate (PA) attrition poses a significant risk to workforce growth and must be mitigated.
- Strategies such as adequate resourcing, support mechanisms, career structure development, and professional regulation are recommended to support PAs.
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