Temperature-Driven Dengue Transmission in a Changing Climate: Patterns, Trends, and Future Projections.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Epidemiology
• Climate Change Research

Background:

• Dengue fever is a significant global health threat, exacerbated by climate sensitivity and increasing incidence worldwide.
• Understanding the link between climate factors and dengue transmission is crucial for public health planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze dengue incidence trends and temperature correlations globally from 1990-2019.
• To project future dengue incidence under various climate change scenarios.
• To identify regions and populations most vulnerable to dengue expansion.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Global Burden of Disease and TerraClimate datasets for historical analysis (1990-2019).
• Employed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data for future climate projections.
• Correlated annual mean minimum temperatures (AMMTs) with dengue incidence rates.

Main Results:

• Observed a significant global increase in dengue cases from 1990-2019.
• Confirmed a positive correlation between temperature and dengue incidence, particularly above 21°C.
• Identified central/eastern sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania as high-sensitivity regions; males and ages 15-19/70-84 as most susceptible.

Conclusions:

• Projected substantial increases in global dengue incidence by 2050 and 2100.
• Warned of year-round dengue endemicity in several regions by 2100 under high-emission scenarios.
• Emphasized the need for climate change mitigation and targeted interventions for high-risk areas and populations.