Outcome prediction in psychological therapy with continuous time dynamic modeling of affective states and emotion...

To date, many prediction studies in psychotherapy research have used cross-sectional data to predict treatment outcome. The present study used intensive longitudinal assessments and continuous time dynamic modeling (CTDM) to investigate the temporal dynamics of affective states and emotion regulation in the early phase of therapy and their ability to predict treatment outcome.

Ninety-one patients undergoing psychological treatment at a university outpatient clinic took part in a 2-week ecological momentary assessment (EMA) period. Participants answered self-report measures on positive affect (PA), negative affect, and emotion regulation (ER) four times a day. Hierarchical Bayesian CTDM was conducted to identify temporal effects within (autoregressive) and between (cross-regressive) PA, negative affect, and ER. The resulting CTDM parameters, simple EMA parameters (e.g., mean), and cross-sectional predictors were entered into a LASSO model to be examined as predictors of treatment outcome at Session 15.

Two significant predictors were identified: initial impairment and the continuous time cross-effect of PA on ER. The final model explained 40% of variance in treatment outcome, with the cross-effect (PA-ER) accounting for 4% of variance beyond initial impairment.

The results demonstrate that temporal patterns of affective EMA data are valuable for the mapping of individual differences and the prediction of treatment outcome. This information can be used to provide therapists with feedback to personalize treatments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).