Ten-Year Evolution of World Swimming Trends for Different Performance Clusters: A Gaussian Model

To analyze the evolution of the world ranking in swimming over the last 10 years, with particular attention to the effects of COVID-19 on the different levels of participating athletes.

The top 200 world-ranked entries in all swimming events (50-m pool) were collected from 2013 to 2022. A mathematical model (Gaussian model) was proposed to evaluate the ranking progression for different performance levels (clusters) according to distance, stroke, and gender. The model was applied both with and without the COVID season data.

Overall results indicated a general progression in world rankings over the last 10 years, except for the COVID season and the post-Olympic year(s), with peak results in the 2021 postpandemic (Olympic) year. The gender gap in World Aquatics points scoring has shown an increasing gap in favor of males since 2017, reaching 1.5% in 2022. The top 200 positions of world rankings were grouped into 3 different clusters defined by the 23.3%, 66.5%, and 100% of ranked male swimmers (or 31.5%, 72.5%, and 100% for females) and with average World Aquatics scores of 910 (12), 858 (10) and 816 (11) points (907 [13], 847 [11], and 802 [12] for females). The Gaussian model showed a gap averaging ∼21 to ∼36 points between performance curves with or without COVID season data, with larger gaps for female rankings and cluster-3 swimmers.

These results suggest that, given the lower relative performance of female swimmers in the different clusters of world rankings, female events may provide an opportunity to enter international-level swimming.