Association between heart rate and mortality in patients with septic shock: an analysis revealed by time series data

Heart rate is crucial for patients with septic shock, but there are few studies on the scope of heart rate. Therefore, we studied the relationship between different heart rates and mortality of critically ill patients with septic shock, and explored the optimal heart rate range, in order to provide new insights for clinical treatment of septic shock.

This retrospective study utilized time-series heart rate data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV database. Patients with septic shock were identified as the Sepsis 3.0 criteria and received vasopressor therapy in the first 24 h since ICU admission. We calculated the time-weighted average heart rate (TWA-HR) based on the time-series data. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was employed to investigate the nonlinear relationship between heart rate and 28-day mortality, aiming to explore the optimal heart rate control target for septic patients and using this target as the exposure factor. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, and the secondary outcome were ICU and in-hospital mortality. For the original cohort, we applied the log-rank test to infer the relationship between heart rate and mortality. To control for bias introduced by confounders, we utilized propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce imbalances between normal TWA-HR and high TWA-HR groups, and we established a series of models [the multivariable Cox model, matching weight (MW)-adjusted Cox model, multivariable logistic regression, MW-adjusted logistic regression, and doubly robust model] as sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses to demonstrate the robustness of our findings.

A total of 13492 patients were included in our study. The RCS analysis based on Cox and logistic regression showed increased risk of mortality (P < 0.001, non-linear P < 0.001) when TWA-HR > 85 beats per minute (bpm). The log-rank test revealed in terms of the 28-day mortality, the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 1.92 (1.78-2.06, P < 0.001) for patients with high TWA-HR compared to normal TWA-HR group. Similarly, for the ICU mortality, the HR (95% CI) was 1.64 (1.52-1.78, P < 0.001), and for the in-hospital mortality, the HR (95% CI) was 1.61 (1.48-1.76, P < 0.001). Collectively, the sensitivity analysis consistently demonstrated higher 28-day mortality, ICU mortality, and in-hospital mortality in patients with TWA-HR > 85 bpm.

Patients with septic shock whose heart rate was controlled no more than 85 bpm during ICU stay received survival benefit in terms of 28-day, ICU and in-hospital mortality. .