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Developing a nomogram to predict recurrent intussusception after pneumatic reduction of primary intussusception in
Jie Liu1,2, Danping Zeng3, Zhihui Jiang4
1Department of Pediatric Surgery, Yijishan Hospital of Wannan Medical College, Wannan Medical College, No. 2 Zheshan West Road, Jinghu District, Wuhu City, 241000, Anhui Province, China. liujie19842020@163.com.
Backgroud:
Intussusception is a common acute abdominal disease in children, often leading to acute ileus in infants and young children.
Objective:
This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent intussusception in children within 48 h after pneumatic reduction of primary intussusception.
Methods:
Clinical data of children with acute intussusception admitted to multiple hospitals from March 2019 to March 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The children were divided into a successful reductioncontrol group (control group) and a recurrent intussusception group (RI group) according to the results of pneumatic reduction.
Results:
A total of 2406 cases were included in this study, including 2198 control group and 208 RI group. In the total sample, 1684 cases were trained and 722 cases were verified. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to establish a predictive model based on age, abdominal pain time, white blood cells count, and hypersensitive C-reactive protein levels as independent predictors of intussusception recurrence. The nomogram successfully predicted recurrent intussusception after pneumatic reduction.
Conclusion:
In this study, a nomogram was developed based on clinical risk factors to predict recurrent intussusception following pneumatic reduction in children. Age, abdominal pain time, white blood cell counts, and hypersensitive C-reactive protein levels were identified as predictors and incorporated into the nomogram. Internal validation demonstrated that this nomogram can offer a clear and convenient tool for identifying risk factors for recurrence of intussusception in children undergoing pneumatic reduction.
