Early prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus using first trimester maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma...

The oral glucose tolerance test with 75 g glucose is commonly regarded as the gold standard (GS) for the detection of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). However, one limitation of this test is its administration in the late second trimester of pregnancy in some countries (e.g., Iran). This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) for predicting GDM in the early first trimester of pregnancy using a novel statistical modeling technique.

The study population consisted of 344 pregnant women who participated in the first trimester screening program for GDM. Maternal serum PAPP-A levels were measured between 11 and 13 gestational weeks for all participants. A Bayesian latent profile model (LPM) under the skew-t (ST) distribution was employed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy measures of PAPP-A in the absence of GS test outcomes.

The mean (standard deviation) age of the participants was 28.87 ± 5.20 years. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) PAPP-A MoM was 0.91 (0.69-1.34). Utilizing the LPM under the ST distribution while adjusting for covariates, the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of PAPP-A were 92% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.89, 0.98), 81% (95% CrI: 0.76, 0.91), and 0.91 (95% CrI: 0.83, 0.97), respectively. Notably, the pregnant women with GDM had significantly lower PAPP-A values ( $\beta =$ -0.52, 95% CrI [-0.61, -0.46]).

Generally, our findings confirmed that PAPP-A could serve as a potential screening tool for the identification of GDM in the early stages of pregnancy.